On August 10th, after the flood that occurred in Bhotekoshi of Rasuwa in the Trishuli River caused a great deluge, the issue of the condition of mountains, glaciers, glaciers and climate change has come to the surface. The terrible flood in Bhotekoshi has also turned Pokhara back to the past.
The origin of Pokhara is from the great flood. Even now, experts are saying that Pokhara is at risk of the same catastrophe. There is a history of the creation of Pokhara valley due to the great calamity that broke the mountains in the great earthquake about 1200 to 800 years ago.
On the 23rd of Baisakh 2069, 72 people were killed in a flood that occurred at the location of the Seti glacier after a huge rock fell from the Annapurna Himal. That flood was similar to Bhotekoshi. Although this flood did not cause destruction like that of Bhotekoshi, the nature was the same.
On the one hand, these floods suggest to learn lessons from the past and on the other hand, the issue of our glaciers and rivers and climate change has also been brought to the center, says expert Dr. Narayan Gurung.
Gurung, who has studied disaster in Seti and Kali river areas, says that climate change, rapid erosion, melting of mountains and unimaginable human encroachment on river banks are making our mountains, glaciers and rivers dangerous.
Bhotekoshi's floods and unimaginable calamities in dry areas
Recently, the devastating flood in the Bhotekoshi river in Rasuwa has devastated the road network and hydropower infrastructure along with the main trade route with the northern neighbor China. Bhotekoshi has had a history of large floods at different times before, but the nature of the current flood and its effect seems to be different and dangerous.
"Perhaps the biggest flood we have seen in our century, in our generation, has now come to Bhotekashi. And, it is exactly similar to the Seti flood. In this sense, from where it originated and how it happened, it is the same as the Bhotekoshi flood and the Seti flood," says Dr. Gurung.
According to Gurung, from the current preliminary report, the rock fell down from a height of about 1200 to 1500 meters. Due to this, the storm came to Bhotekoshi, Gurung said.
It fell from a very high place, it fell vertically 1200, 1500 meters down at once. Then the glacier thundered into the glacier. There is a natural accumulation of snow in the glacier, it was carried away,' says Gurung, 'It was extraordinary.'
He says that it is difficult for humans to reach there because they are just starting to study about glaciers and glaciers in the university. "We have no other means of knowing what is happening in the mountains except satellite images. Therefore, it is difficult to predict. But this much we can say, it will go away one day," said Gurung.
She says that our mountains are in a very dangerous situation. He said that ISIMOD has issued a report that about 37 glaciers in the Hindu Kush mountains are dangerous. More than 21 of them are in Nepal. This is a dangerous situation," he said.
He said that the loss of Bhotekoshi can be attributed to the Great Flood. He said that the people living on the banks of the river were also afraid that one day a flood would come and take them away, but they did not think that it would come to this extent. "One day a flood will come, now it will come in 50 years, it will come in 51 years or it will come tomorrow," he said.
Our engineering technology, our science, we are miraculous, we can conquer the river. We encroached the river so much that we built a settlement without even leaving a place for the river to walk. We are experiencing the consequences one after the other, whether it is in Bhotekoshi, whether it may be in Seti tomorrow," he said.
Gurung said that climate change is causing unseasonal floods along with the rising temperature of the earth. The flood in Pokhara in 2069 was also unseasonal. In the year 2077, there was a flood in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, India. That too was unseasonable. It killed more than 200 people," he said. "Climate change is also one of the reasons for such floods."
He says that the process of Himalayan mountains falling, glaciers bursting, flooding of low coastal areas has been going on for thousands of years. In recent times, when it affected human settlements and humans, it turned into a disaster. Then our eyes fell on it, he argues.
The topography of the Himalayan region is raw and steep. Rain-shadow or Trans-Himalayan areas, which previously did not receive rain or rain in a negligible amount, are now receiving intense and heavy rains due to climate change.
We call it climate change in a very simple language. Maybe that is also one of the reasons," said Dr. Gurung says, "But it has started raining in the Himalayan region. Such a flood happened in Manang, which never floods. Now the flood is coming towards Jomsom and Kagbeni.
The flood caused by the breaking of the glaciers in the upper reaches or the movement of the glaciers will sweep away the settlements in the lower coastal areas in a moment. According to Gurung, learning lessons from such incidents, an automated early warning system for round-the-clock monitoring should be installed in the upper coastal areas in the days to come.
In addition to that, the state should immediately stop the practice of building infrastructure in the river flow area or 'flood plain' and move towards the strict implementation of the long-term land use policy without delay. Gurung said.
The danger of Annapurna and Seti's 'neck' that can swallow many
As much as Pokhara looks attractive and exciting in terms of scenery, it is in a sensitive and scary situation from the point of view of geological security. Although the sight of Seti river flowing through the gorge attracts the tourists, there is a danger hidden in it, it is not known when it will explode.
Dr. about the situation of Annapurna ice range. Gurung says, 'There was a flood in Seti in 2069 after the rocks of Annapurna Himal fell and fell to the place where Seti Glacier is located. Another risk is that the glaciers may burst at any time, the icebergs may break. So it is difficult to control Seti.
The biggest geological challenge for the Pokhara market is the narrow 'necks' in the course of the Seti River. Seti is sometimes stuck in a narrow bottleneck. Gurung warns that this could become a disaster for Pokhara that will swallow many people.
If you look at the KI Sing bridge where the Seti river flows, it is a gorge. If the mound of that bridge falls and blocks it, where will the river flow? The river fills up, then the river flows towards Bagar. Gurung says, "What will happen when the flood comes?"
As the Seti flows, there is a gorge at Narayanthan, Ramghat is a gorge, Ratopahiro is a gorge and when it reaches Dhungesanghu, it is again a gorge. He said that there is a possibility that the river may be blocked by falling rocks and mounds on the banks of the river in all these places.
Depicting the current situation of Ratopahiro Dr. Gurung says, "From Ramghat down to Ratopahiro, there is a situation that the mound will fall either now or not." It is in a condition where it has been completely torn down. In Chait, some part fell in an avalanche and now in Barkha, water came from it.
To save Pokhara from a dangerous situation, Dr. Gurung has also pointed out some adventurous and technical solutions. He argues that wherever landslides or mounds are blocking the river, even if it is done by 'bomb blast' in a controlled manner, the path of the river should be opened.
Wherever rocks have fallen, we can open that place by bomb blasting. Where now the mounds are blocking the Seti, stopping its flow, if we make the Seti wide and open by bomb blasting, the risk of the Seti being blocked will be reduced,' he said. The state should be involved for that. The more Seti is made open, the more mouths are opened, the less the fear of Seti being closed tomorrow.
Apart from this, from Pokhara's Lantern Bazar, Shanti Tol to Tanahun's Gagangowda and Bhimad, 8-9 unorganized settlements are increasing.
As now, thousands of families are living on the banks of Seti in an unorganized manner. What all of them have to understand is that we are waiting for a catastrophe. It is a time bomb, it is only a question of when it will explode.
Kaligandaki threatens from Jomsom to Beni
After the blocking of the Kerung border crossing, there is an ongoing debate to move the Corolla crossing of Mustang as an alternative for trade with China. But how safe is the Kaligand corridor leading to Corolla? Dr. Gurung's study shows that the Kaligandaki river and its surrounding geography are equally at risk.
Even now, Jomsom cannot be easily reached. In every rainy season, landslides occur somewhere and cause grief. This is proof that the Kaligandaki corridor is not safe for us," said Dr. Gurung says, "Especially at the head of the Kaligand corridor, there are also Himtals. At some point, those glaciers may break and a very large flood may occur.
Another thing, the land through which Kaligandaki river is flowing, there is such a steep land that landslides can occur at any time. That landslide can block Kaligandaki.
There is a world of difference between a river being blocked and bursting immediately and bursting after a long time. If it has been locked up for months and suddenly explodes, it will cause unimaginable destruction. He claims that when hundreds of millions of cubic meters of water are poured from the narrow gorge of Kaligandaki, the entire settlement of the lower coastal area will be flooded.
Evaluating the condition of the settlements on the banks of Kaligand. Gurung says, "From Beni Bazar to Jomsom, there are dozens of unsafe settlements. We call it 'flood plain'. We are living in a slum built by the river, where the river had once flowed. After saying that it is very risky," he added, "I am saying that the Beni market itself is very risky. On the other hand, there is also a risk from the Myagdi river.
Jomsom market is almost at the level of black, while the flood that occurred in Kagbeni on July 28, 2080 has already indicated. Dr. Gurung's research team has conducted a detailed study of the Kagbeni flood and published a research article.
What we found is that there has been extreme rainfall. It has now started raining in the Himalayan region which was called rainless area before. It started raining in Mustang, flooding in Kagbeni and caused huge damage,” said Gurung.
Citizens have to understand - we are on a time bomb
Pokhara and our Himalayan settlements, which originated from the great disaster, are again seen waiting for another great disaster. If we don't pay attention now and we just keep arguing, tomorrow we will suffer unimaginable damage. Dr. Gurung has suggested a roadmap to avoid this disastrous possibility and learn from it.
He said that the issue of Nepal's mountains, glaciers and climate should be taken seriously and the voice should be raised at the international level. The primary requirement is to remove the fallen rocks and landslides from the gorges of Seti and Kaligandaki.
The settlements on the banks of the river in 'flood plains' and dangerous gorges should be immediately shifted to safer places. "We are now debating on the standard of 10 meters or 20 meters, that is useless. If there is a flood in Seti, it can destroy hundreds of meters, if it is the same, it can destroy up to 5-600 meters. Therefore, a person should be aware of such things. The government also had to implement the land use policy in practice.
Be it Bhotekoshi, be it Seti catchment. Even if it is Kaligandaki. He said that such incidents also show why the ancestors said that one should not live by the river or at the foot of the mountain.
As the headwaters of big rivers are far away, it takes a certain amount of time for the flood to reach the low-lying areas. He said that the government should now take seriously the development of the information system.
First of all, the citizens themselves have to understand that we are on a time bomb. The government should also correct the practice of revising the land use policy after every disaster but not implementing it in practice,'' he suggested.
He says that no one has learned despite the destruction caused by floods every year. Every flood has caused destruction, property worth billions has been destroyed. How many people have been killed? Have you learned your lesson?', he said, 'That's why disaster management is not something that the government does alone. In disaster management, the government is one, then the community. After that, it is the duty of every citizen.
Subedi, who is a journalist based in Pokhara, is the head of the Gandaki province bureau of Online News.
